By Satoshi Iizuka,
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's loss of public support over several scandals involving Cabinet members is likely undermining his diplomatic clout on the world stage, pundits said.
Kishida, who has pitched himself at home as having a major hand in world affairs, intensified his diplomatic efforts in 2023, including hosting a Group of Seven summit in his home constituency of Hiroshima, devastated by a U.S. atomic bomb in 1945, in May.
But as Kishida presided over a special summit with ASEAN leaders in Tokyo on Sunday, he found his last significant diplomatic event of the year overshadowed by news about a political fund scandal within his ruling Liberal Democratic Party that has further eroded his shaky leadership.
Kishida, a House of Representatives lawmaker known as a dovish moderate in the conservative LDP, served as foreign minister for around five years through August 2017 under the administration of slain Prime Minister Shinzo Abe before taking office as premier himself in October 2021.
In 2023, Kishida, who has put emphasis on "summit diplomacy," improved Japan's relations with South Korea through multiple meetings with Yoon Suk Yeol, who became the president in May 2022. Kishida invited Yoon to the G7 summit as a guest.
Japan-South Korea ties had deteriorated to their worst level in decades during the tenure of Yoon's predecessor, the left-leaning Moon Jae In, against a backdrop of disputes over wartime labor and territorial issues. Japan ruled the Korean Peninsula from 1910 to 1945.
In August, Kishida and Yoon visited the United States for a first standalone trilateral summit with President Joe Biden, with security cooperation between them seen as essential in dealing with North Korea's nuclear and missile threats.
Toru Yoshida, a professor of comparative politics at Doshisha University in Kyoto, said Kishida did not do "anything outstanding" in 2023 but strengthened Japan's traditional diplomatic approach centering on the security alliance with the United States.
With Japan seeking to play the role of close U.S. ally in Asia at a time when China's military and economic clout is growing, Kishida's phased approach to changing foreign policy recognized the need for "continuity and stability" in diplomacy, he said.
In March, meanwhile, Kishida made a surprise visit to Ukraine, under invasion by Russia since February 2022, for talks with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The subsequent G7 summit attracted global attention as Zelenskyy joined the gathering in person.
Ryo Sahashi, an associate professor of international politics at the University of Tokyo, said Kishida brought together world leaders in Hiroshima and increased momentum toward denuclearization, with fears lingering that Russia may use a nuclear weapon against Ukraine.
As for ASEAN, Kishida should receive more appreciation for deepening relations with the regional bloc by committing to boost Japan's engagement with developing and emerging nations called the "Global South," Sahashi added.
But while the G7 summit boosted his popularity, weeks afterward he faced criticism over photos showing his eldest son's merrymaking at a private party at the prime minister's official residence. The son, Shotaro, was sacked as his father's executive secretary.
Mounting public frustration over rising prices without sufficient wage growth and troubles related to the My Number national identification system then combined to push the approval ratings for Kishida's Cabinet to their lowest levels since he became premier.
Since his fall from public favor, Kishida has found diplomatic success harder to come by.
He held his first meeting in a year with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum summit in San Francisco in November, but failed to make headway on key bilateral issues, including China's blanket import ban on Japanese seafood following the release of treated radioactive water into the sea from the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant.
Kishida and Xi also remained at odds over China's detentions of Japanese citizens. As Beijing has not provided specific reasons for the arrests, many Japanese companies have begun to refrain from operating in China, the world's second-biggest economy.
Looking ahead, Hiroshi Shiratori, a political science professor at Hosei University, said Xi and other leaders will "not seriously" negotiate with Kishida as they are aware that his sluggish public support could force him out of office in the near future.
Kishida has become a "typical example" of a flagging leader, Shiratori said, adding that his domestic weakness "will not benefit the people and cannot bolster Japan's presence in the international community."
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