By Maya Kaneko,
The foreign ministers from Japan, China, and South Korea agreed in Busan on Sunday to communicate closely over North Korean issues, sparking hope that cooperative possibilities on the matter can be explored within their three-way framework amid deepening Moscow-Pyongyang ties.
The trilateral mechanism, resuming direct foreign ministerial talks after a four-year hiatus due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic, is often seen as ineffective in addressing North Korea's missile and nuclear programs, given Beijing's significant economic influence over Pyongyang.
Nonetheless, some analysts highlight potential factors that could change this view. The latest three-way meeting came days after Pyongyang launched a military spy satellite using ballistic missile technology in violation of U.N. resolutions.
Japan and South Korea, together with the United States, immediately condemned the launch. However, China has stopped short of criticizing Pyongyang, only calling for a political settlement and urging all parties to "address each other's legitimate concerns in a balanced way."
After a September summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Russian Far East, it is believed that Moscow and Pyongyang strengthened military cooperation. Speculation is mounting that Russian assistance and guidance might be linked to Pyongyang's recent spy satellite launch.
After failed attempts in May and August, North Korea claimed it successfully put a military reconnaissance satellite into orbit on Tuesday, with Kim noting that the country's armed forces have acquired "eyes" overlooking a very long distance.
Troy Stangarone, senior director at the Korea Economic Institute in Washington, said Beijing does not want Moscow-Pyongyang ties to grow too deep "to maintain its primacy in relations with North Korea and limit the potential for instability on the Korean Peninsula."
China's wariness over closer Russia-North Korea relations could provide room for trilateral cooperation on North Korean issues. "The Japan-South Korea-China trilateral framework can provide an important platform for sharing concerns and potential approaches," he added.
Stangarone, however, said the three-way scheme "needs to be coordinated with deep consultations with the United States," and improved Sino-U.S. ties could enhance the potential for cooperation on North Korean matters.
"We've seen in recent years that when relations between the United States and China deteriorate that Beijing is more likely to loosen sanctions enforcement and publicly push for relief for North Korea," the director said.
The trilateral ministerial talks came shortly after Chinese President Xi Jinping had separate meetings with U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the sidelines of a regional summit in San Francisco, which pointed to the possibility of strained Sino-U.S. and Sino-Japanese ties improving.
Furthermore, China-South Korea relations have also warmed to some degree since plunging on Seoul's agreement with Washington in 2016 on deploying a land-based antiballistic missile system. Beijing claims the system's radar would enhance the United States' ability to spy on its territory.
Noboru Yamaguchi, a professor at the International University of Japan in Niigata Prefecture, said China detests the situation in which North Korea "becomes too provocative and uncontrollable," triggering a U.S. response.
Being a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, Beijing must maintain the posture that the use of ballistic missile technology by Pyongyang, in violation of U.N. resolutions against it, cannot be tolerated, he added.
The professor said while Beijing's influence over Pyongyang alone cannot help completely settle issues surrounding North Korean missile and nuclear development, it is still important to nudge China into showing a cooperative stance in a multilateral framework.
But Stephen Nagy, a professor at International Christian University in Tokyo, warned that the trilateral meetings "really have limits" in terms of what kind of outcome they can have, with the three Asian powers "having such divergent interests within the region."
"I think that this framework will continue to be useful for dialogue and sharing views. But it will not be a framework that deals with the fundamental challenges within the trilateral relations," he said.
Nagy pointed out that North Korea's missile launch "creates more challenges for an already heavily overburdened United States," which has been providing aid to Ukraine in the war started by Russia and supporting Israel in the Gaza crisis.
He said that amid the continued rivalry between the world's two largest economies, Beijing could benefit from North Korea's behavior to "further dilute" Washington's ability to focus on issues critical to China.
South Korea has assessed that North Korea's military reconnaissance satellite entered orbit and that Pyongyang received technological assistance from Russia.
Japan has also confirmed "some object" launched by North Korea is "orbiting the Earth," in an assessment made in collaboration with the United States and South Korea. Tokyo is carefully analyzing whether the object has been functioning as intended since its launch.
Several experts said the spy satellite launch would only have minimal impact on regional security, as it is likely that any images from the satellite will be low-resolution and of limited value in gaining intelligence on U.S. and South Korean military operations.
They said several dozen more satellites would be needed to constantly monitor moves by U.S. and South Korean troops in the region.
North Korea has said the spy satellite will officially begin its mission on Dec. 1, vowing to place several more satellites into orbit in a short span of time to secure its reconnaissance capabilities over South Korea.
Kim has asserted that his country has the right to possess spy satellites, defending it as "a full-fledged exercise of the right to self-defense."
(Keita Nakamura in Tokyo contributed to this story.)
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