By Jim Allen,
When Yoshinobu Yamamoto hits the market this winter following his posting by the Pacific League's Orix Buffaloes, MLB teams expect his contract will easily surpass the $155 million Masahiro Tanaka received, currently the largest for a Japanese player ahead of his American debut.
"He may be the best pitcher we've ever seen come out of Japan," one MLB team's scout told Kyodo News. "He could get $200 million, partly because of that and partly because of this year's market."
While Tanaka was coming off monster seasons in 2011 and 2013, when he went 24-0 to a record for consecutive winning decisions, Yamamoto's success over the past three seasons is equally unprecedented.
"Yamamoto's just 25, and in today's analytic-driven age, that is a big thing. Teams want to lock up young players to long-term contracts," the scout said. "And here's a guy who is going to be a No. 1 or No. 2 starter."
Only the third pitcher in the history of Japanese pro baseball to throw no-hitters in consecutive years, Yamamoto, a 178-centimeter right-hander, has, for three straight seasons, led the PL in strikeouts, ERA, wins and winning percentage.
The PL's MVP the past two seasons and a solid candidate to win another this year, Yamamoto is the second player to win three straight Eiji Sawamura Awards as Japanese baseball's most impressive starting pitcher, after Hall of Famer Masaichi Kaneda from 1956-1958.
"He's everything you can dream of: velocity, stamina, charisma, his breaking pitches work, he's confident and leads by example," another scout said.
Yamamoto is atypical among the elite players in today's game in that he doesn't lift weights and is not large by MLB standards. And though he did not suffer through any obvious physical issues in 2023, several of his starts were pushed back a few days.
"That might be the only concern teams have," a third scout said. "Because of his size, there may be some who question how well he can transition from pitching once a week to every fifth or sixth day. But that's something a lot of Japanese pitchers have to adjust to, and I think he'll be fine."
As for the strength training, the four scouts spoken to for this story agreed that whichever team signs Yamamoto will let him do things his way.
This year, Yamamoto revamped his pitching delivery, and not only did he show no major ill effects, he posted a career-best 1.21 ERA.
"Who changes their delivery to that extent and does what he did? No one," said one of the scouts.
Yamamoto throws hard, with an average fastball velocity last season of 153 kilometers (95.1 miles) per hour, according to Japanese pro baseball data site Delta Graphs. He also has exceptional command and a variety of weapons, including a big dropping curve and a splitter the MLB scouts love.
"He's a finesse pitcher with velocity, with breadth and depth to his (pitching) repertoire," the scout said. "He's a unique talent."
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