By Satoshi Iizuka,
There is speculation among Japanese lawmakers that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida may call a snap election in the near future to regain his political footing, as two years have passed since he took office in October 2021.
Both the ruling coalition and opposition parties are wary of the prospect that Kishida may dissolve the House of Representatives for a general election during the extraordinary parliamentary session due to kick off on Oct. 20, though he has repeatedly denied the possibility.
As approval ratings for his Cabinet have dropped to the lowest levels since he became the premier two years ago, Kishida's decision on whether to go ahead with the move may hinge on the outcome of two upcoming national by-elections later this month, observers said.
Depending on the results of the polls, which will fill vacant seats previously held by his ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Kishida, who has set securing re-election as the LDP leader next year as a top priority, might review his strategy, they added.
Although Kishida's Cabinet got off to a positive start on Oct. 4, 2021, with relatively stable approval ratings, a series of revelations about ties between LDP lawmakers and the Unification Church, a controversial religious group, took a toll on him late last year.
Support for Kishida moderately rebounded afterward, helped by some of his diplomatic achievements, including making a surprise visit to Ukraine, under invasion by Russia, and hosting a Group of Seven summit in his home constituency of Hiroshima.
The figures, however, have returned to a downward trend against a backdrop of errors related to the "My Number" national identification system and public frustration over rising prices without substantial wage growth.
In a bid to freshen up the government's image, Kishida revamped his Cabinet, appointing a record-tying five female ministers, but the move ended up failing to restore its popularity among the public as he retained several heavyweights in key posts.
While the latest Kyodo News survey conducted after the Cabinet overhaul showed a more than six-percentage-point increase in the approval rating to 39.8 percent, other media polls indicated his support rating has changed little, broadly staying below 40 percent.
Kishida, meanwhile, instructed his Cabinet members to put together a new economic package by the end of October, with some LDP lawmakers claiming that a supplementary budget to cover the stimulus should be worth 15 trillion yen ($100 billion) or more.
Political experts believe Kishida thinks the envisioned large-scale economic measures will be received favorably by voters and boost his popularity, but critics and opposition lawmakers have labeled them "pork barrel" policies, given whether the package will bring long-term positive economic benefits is not yet known.
Kishida had initially been tight-lipped on whether he would submit the supplementary budget for the fiscal year through March 2024 to the Diet session to be convened later this month, stoking speculation that he will postpone deliberations and dissolve the lower house.
Under such circumstances, Kishida told reporters on Friday that his government will present the draft budget to the extraordinary parliamentary session, in a move that would reduce the likelihood of him calling a snap election at the outset of the assembly.
Nevertheless, lawmakers have not let their guard down about the prospect of Kishida suddenly dissolving the lower house, given he has apparently been eager to strengthen his political base by winning a general election ahead of the LDP presidential race in September 2024.
Kenta Izumi, chief of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, said Sunday that Kishida is "highly likely" to dissolve the lower house in October or November, adding that he has urged his party members to prepare accordingly.
Although the prime minister could choose to dissolve the chamber at any time, the next lower house election is not required to be held until the fall of 2025.
"If the stimulus measures received support from voters and contributed to propping up the approval ratings, Prime Minister Kishida would decide to dissolve the lower house," said Hiroshi Shiratori, a political science professor at Hosei University.
But Shiratori added that Kishida's final judgment on the matter will likely come after upcoming by-elections for a seat in the lower chamber and a slot in the House of Councillors, or upper house, scheduled to take place on Oct. 22.
The by-elections will be the first national polls following Kishida's Cabinet revamp on Sept. 13, both of which are expected to be one-on-one battles between the ruling and opposition camps. The LDP held the two seats before they became vacant.
"If the LDP lost either of them, it would directly affect Prime Minister Kishida's strategy," making it difficult for him to dissolve the lower house this year, Shiratori said.
Related coverage:
Japan parliament to convene extraordinary session on Oct. 20
Japan mulls support for low-income earners in new economic package
Economic package to ease inflation pain, spur wage growth: Japan PM
