By Honoka Ito,
The director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Dan Smith, has warned that nations such as the United States, China, and Russia are on the brink of an "uncontrolled nuclear arms race spiral" similar to the Cold War against the backdrop of conflict in Ukraine and Taiwan.
Speaking to Kyodo News following the Group of Seven leaders' summit in Hiroshima and the launch of the "Hiroshima Vision" on nuclear disarmament, he noted that security guarantees based on nuclear deterrence are inherently destabilizing to the international order and that instead, constructive dialogue between nuclear powers like the United States and China is possible.
Smith, who has directed SIPRI since 2015 and has an extensive research and publication record on a range of peace and conflict issues, also stated that developed countries should seriously review their relations with the Global South, the emerging and developing countries mainly in the southern hemisphere, in order to achieve better global stability.
Referring to the state of China's expanding nuclear weapons program, Smith estimates that China will build up its nuclear arsenal at a rate of 60 new weapons per year -- the consequences of which would depend on the response from the United States and Russia.
Smith argues that if the United States or Russia decide to reduce their commitment to nuclear disarmament or even increase their own nuclear arsenals, the international order could enter into an "action/reaction spiral" where the arsenals of the world's nuclear powers can only increase.
This highlights the instability of the nuclear deterrence ideology that had dominated since the beginning of the 1947-1991 Cold War era.
"Each side perceives the other's move as hostile and thinks it has to defend against it by being stronger. That was where those huge numbers of nuclear warheads (during the Cold War) came from -- then it was necessary to break out of that. So we are perhaps at the very beginning of that process now," Smith said.
One recent example of the deterrence mindset in action can be seen in the context of the war in Ukraine, when Poland requested "nuclear sharing" after the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. This would involve U.S. nuclear weapons being deployed and jointly operated by member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
With this kind of deterrence strategy, Smith says that when one side strengthens its nuclear capabilities, the other side will inevitably be destabilized and seek to increase its own military capabilities.
To prevent these "spirals" of nuclear proliferation, Smith asserts it is important to get rid of the illusion that nuclear weapons, which cause devastating levels of radiation, are tactically useful.
"I think it is really important to demystify nuclear weapons -- first of all to understand how awful they are, and secondly to understand that from a military point of view, they're almost useless," Smith said.
Smith also stressed that U.S.-China relations are, in fact, "at the table" and are currently being negotiated, despite tensions over trade issues and Taiwan.
Given the two countries' shared common interests, such as climate change, infectious disease control and nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, he expressed hope that their respective hardline standards will be reviewed so constructive dialogue can progress.
Regarding the perception among Western countries that nations in the "Global South" are "supporting" Russia as opposed to Ukraine, Smith stressed that this is a misunderstanding within Western diplomacy, which can come across as "self-righteous" in its posture.
While these states regard Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a breach of national sovereignty and wish an end to the war due to the negative impact of fewer exports from the region, such as food and fertilizer, he says they simply do not see it as their issue -- a stance which echoes how they have historically been treated by Western powers.
"They point out with some justice that when they've had wars or armed conflict in recent years, they're often told by representatives from the Global North to just settle it and stop fighting," Smith said. "So this is what they're trying to say now to Ukraine and Russia."
In order to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine and prevent nuclear proliferation, Smith thus states that a better understanding of the Global South perspective is imperative and that the United States and Europe should try to achieve greater cooperation with these nations on the international stage.
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