By Satoshi Iizuka,
A year after the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the vacancy in the top position of the ruling party's biggest faction, previously held by him, gives an advantage to incumbent premier Fumio Kishida.
Such a power vacuum led to a decline in the faction's influence, allowing Kishida to effectively govern both the party and the government in the absence of formidable rivals.
Kishida, who became the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in September 2021 but merely leads its fourth-largest group, has been compelled to navigate the balance of power among Abe's supporters and other intraparty factions.
But the biggest group with members totaling some 100 in both houses of parliament might break up without a strong leader like Abe, sparking expectations that such a scenario would bode well for Kishida, political experts say.
In the history of the LDP, which has dominated Japan's politics for most of the period since 1955, its largest faction has played a crucial role in various decision-making processes, especially in the selection of the party's leader, who typically becomes prime minister.
Even after leaving office for health reasons in 2020, Abe, Japan's longest-serving premier, maintained his influence. He took up the leadership of the LDP's largest faction in the following year, prompting critics to bash him for trying to become a kingmaker.
Abe, known as a conservative and hawkish politician, was fatally shot on July 8 last year during an election campaigning speech in Nara, western Japan, by a man who, according to the indictment, had crafted his own gun.
Since the assassination, Abe's powerful faction, called Seiwaken or the Seiwa policy study group, has been unable to name a successor to its slain chief, with some members aiming for collective leadership to ensure unity and prevent potential fragmentation.
At its general meeting Thursday, the faction again deferred a decision on how it should be managed as senior members failed to find common ground, participants said.
The faction had been believed to wield considerable influence on Kishida's government, but the decline of the group became evident in June when the LDP did not choose its member who took over Abe's seat as a candidate for a newly established constituency centering on his hometown of Shimonoseki, Yamaguchi Prefecture.
As the number of House of Representatives seats in the western Japan prefecture will be reduced to three from four as part of the nationwide electoral district revision, the LDP had to choose one of two incumbents for the merged district in the next general election.
As a result, Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, the No. 2 of Kishida's faction, won the position, rather than the other lawmaker who was elected in April's by-election with the backing of Abe's widow, Akie.
LDP election strategy committee chairman Hiroshi Moriyama, who leads his own small group, explained that Hayashi was picked as a candidate for the new district as he "is certain to win."
Analysts, however, say Hayashi would have had to move to another constituency if Abe were still alive, emphasizing that the largest faction has experienced a waning in political influence without a prominent leader.
Despite his weak political power base in the LDP and a series of mishaps, including the resignations of four Cabinet ministers and scandals involving his son and other aides, Kishida, who took office in October 2021, has managed to maintain his administration.
Masahiro Iwasaki, a political science professor at Nihon University, said the key factor allowing Kishida to stay in power is the scarcity of significant contenders, particularly from the biggest group in the ruling party.
Takuma Ohamazaki, a political analyst operating an election consulting firm J.A.G. Japan, pointed out that factions with 100 members or more have "often faced divisions" in the country's political arena, adding this is what Kishida wants to observe.
Kishida seems to be "relishing the circumstances in which Abe's group is without a leader" who can bring together many lawmakers, perceiving that a possible rift within the faction would serve as a "tailwind" for him, Ohamazaki said.
Instead of choosing a leader as envisaged by two veteran lawmakers who have tentatively steered the faction, five other senior members, including Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno and industry minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, are seeking collective leadership by them.
The other three are LDP policy chief Koichi Hagiuda, Diet affairs chief Tsuyoshi Takagi, and Hiroshige Seko, secretary general of the party in the House of Councillors.
"It is undeniable that those figures are not so famous among voters, compared to heads of other factions, although the leader of the largest group is usually regarded as a key candidate for the party's president and the prime minister," Ohamazaki said.
Iwasaki echoed the view, saying none of the five lawmakers would firmly spearhead the faction, which could result in the group splitting into two or three cliques after the first anniversary of Abe's death.
If that is the case, it would be "beneficial" for Kishida, as he would no longer need to take into account the actions and developments of the biggest intraparty faction to establish a long-term government, Iwasaki said.
The next LDP presidential race is scheduled to take place in September 2024. Abe was premier for about one year from 2006 and nearly eight years after a comeback in 2012.
