By Tomoyuki Tachikawa,
In a bid to shore up support for his Cabinet ahead of a possible general election, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is set to dedicate himself to realizing a summit with North Korea, but his attempt is unlikely to come to fruition anytime soon.
Kishida, who put off dissolving the House of Representatives for a snap election during the ordinary parliamentary session through June 21, has expressed an eagerness to resolve the long-standing issue of Japanese nationals abducted by North Korea in the 1970s and 1980s.
In late May, Kishida made a sudden commitment to establish high-level negotiations between Tokyo and Pyongyang to pave the way for an early meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, although he has not elaborated on what kind of official talks he envisions.
Some lawmakers have suggested that Kishida's intention behind this diplomatic initiative is to strengthen his chances of winning the lower house election and securing re-election as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in September next year.
But many pundits expect a Kishida summit with Kim will not materialize, as Japan has lost communication channels with North Korea after Pyongyang broke a bilateral accord on principles toward the settlement of the abduction issue, confirmed in 2014 in Stockholm.
Since the breach of the pact in 2016, Japan has ramped up sanctions on North Korea for its nuclear and ballistic missile development in defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions, while Pyongyang asserts that the abduction issue has already been resolved.
Formal talks between Tokyo and Pyongyang have been dormant, even when the United States, Japan's security ally, was engaged in dialogue with North Korea for denuclearization for about two years from 2018 under the administration of Donald Trump.
As the Stockholm deal was reached when Kishida served as foreign minister for around five years through 2017 before becoming premier in October 2021, he has had "an unwavering determination to resolve the abduction issue," a source familiar with the situation of North Korea said.
Kishida is "ready to provide humanitarian aid to North Korea if such a move is judged to be effective in achieving the return" of Japanese abductees by Pyongyang, the source said.
If Kishida could lay the groundwork for a summit with North Korea, it would "enhance his image of having a major hand in foreign affairs and generate a huge tailwind for him, definitely prompting him to dissolve the lower house soon," the source added.
The two Asian nations have no diplomatic ties. Kishida seems to be seeking secret negotiations with North Korea similar to those held by a senior Foreign Ministry official who orchestrated former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's historic visit to Pyongyang in 2002.
The official held talks with his North Korean counterpart, referred to only as "Mr. X," who is believed to have had strong relations with Kim's father and former leader Kim Jong Il.
According to Stephen Nagy, a professor at International Christian University, a Japan-North Korea summit "would be something that both parties could agree to" under the condition that Kishida pledges to provide assistance in areas like infrastructure and food, thereby contributing to "strengthening the regime."
Given the deterioration of North Korea's economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the lack of interaction with the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden, Kim may try to use the abduction issue to "get some kind of concession on sanctions" from Japan, Nagy said.
Negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang over denuclearization and sanctions relief have stalled since late 2019, as North Korea refused a U.S. demand to scrap all of its nuclear facilities and programs.
Immediately after Kishida voiced his intention to start talks with Pyongyang, North Korea's Foreign Ministry official said through its state-run media that there is "no reason" for the two countries "not to meet."
Nagy said it could be possible for Japan "not only to create discussions with North Korea, but perhaps be some kind of middle man between the United States and North Korea."
Other political experts, however, said Kishida's efforts to realize a meeting with Kim would end in failure, as North Korea has become more hostile toward Japan since former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pursued his "maximum pressure" policy against Pyongyang.
In 2014, the government under Abe -- known as a conservative and hawkish politician who was premier for about one year from 2006 and staged a comeback as Japan's top political leader in 2012 -- struck the Stockholm accord with North Korea.
Under the pact, Japan vowed to relax its sanctions on North Korea in exchange for its commitment to conducting a full-scale investigation into the abduction issue.
Nevertheless, North Korea repeatedly postponed reporting the survey results. The nation then disbanded its investigation team and suspended the probe after Japan imposed additional sanctions in 2016 in reaction to Pyongyang's nuclear and missile tests.
Afterward, Abe, Japan's longest-serving prime minister, strived to persuade other democracies to bolster punitive measures against North Korea, pushing the nuclear-armed country to firmly insist that the abduction issue has already been resolved.
In 2019, Song Il Ho, North Korea's top negotiator on normalizing ties with Japan, censured Abe as "rude and immoral." Even after Abe resigned as premier in 2020 and died after being shot last year, Pyongyang has urged Tokyo to alter its stance on the abduction issue.
Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies at Temple University Japan, said the dispute "remains a significant obstacle, and it seems unlikely that Kishida can meet North Korea's expectations and that Pyongyang will budge on its position that the issue is resolved."
North Korea "is facing severe economic problems, and recent reports paint a grim portrait of living conditions, but this vulnerability does not mean Pyongyang will soften its positions on nuclear weapons, missile testing or the abductions," Kingston said.
Kim, meanwhile, has intensified the country's nuclear and missile development, including a planned launch of a military reconnaissance satellite, which has prodded Japanese bureaucrats to put more pressure on North Korea due to the heightened security concerns.
Japan is "looking for an opportunity behind the scenes to sound out North Korea about the possibility of talks" but would be "forced to adopt a tougher attitude" should the nation step up provocations, threatening regional peace and stability, a government source said.
After five abductees were brought back to Japan in 2002, Tokyo has sought the return of 12 others officially recognized as having been abducted by North Korea.
