By Maricar Cinco,
As outgoing Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's foreign policy has largely been defined by his appeasement of China, experts warn this could make it harder for his successor to push back and reverse China's territorial advances in the South China Sea.
Duterte, who will step down on June 30 as he is barred by the Constitution from seeking another six-year term, has taken an accommodating stance toward Beijing's incursions in waters claimed by Manila, in exchange for promised investments from China.
The Philippines and China have overlapping claims in the South China Sea, areas believed to be rich in minerals, gas and oil deposits, and other marine resources.
Shortly after Duterte took office, the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague in July 2016 handed down a ruling that invalidated China's sweeping claim over most of the South China Sea.
However, the president stirred controversy last year when he called the landmark ruling favoring the Philippine position in the territorial dispute "a piece of paper fit for a wastebasket."
Ferdinand Marcos Jr., a frontrunner in the May 9 presidential race, has been leaning toward the same policy as Duterte to push forward talks with China, saying the arbitration is "no longer available to us" since it is dismissed by Beijing as a "political farce."
"We cannot afford that our next president will follow President Duterte, who infamously announced after he assumed office (that) the Philippine Navy will...avoid patrolling our (exclusive economic zone) so as not to displease China," said Antonio Carpio, a retired Supreme Court justice and a Duterte critic.
Maritime law expert Jay Batongbacal pointed out less than $1 billion of the $24 billion in projects promised by China was realized as of 2021, with the most prominent being two bridges in Metro Manila, loans for dam projects, and a proposed railway.
He said Duterte at some point changed tune amid mounting pressure from the domestic security sector to take a harder line against China.
Since the president was inaugurated in June 2016, Manila has filed over 230 diplomatic protests against Chinese incursions in the South China Sea, locally called West Philippine Sea, a 3.5 million square kilometer-shipping lane through which $3 trillion worth of trade passes annually.
In 2020, Duterte told the United Nations General Assembly that the 2016 arbitration had become "part of international law" and rejected attempts to undermine it.
Duterte also increased military presence and assets in the South China Sea in 2021 after over 200 Chinese ships anchored around the disputed Spratly Islands, an archipelago partly or wholly claimed by Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei in addition to the two countries.
However, Batongbacal said, "(Duterte's) legacy will be defined by the fact that he became overly accommodating (of China and) at the same time gave...minimum support to the military here." But it had little impact since China had already made "such big inroads" into the disputed waters, he added.
Although the tribunal said China had unlawfully prevented Filipinos from fishing in Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea since 2012 and ruled key marine features are part of the Philippine EEZ, Filipino fishermen in the area said they could "never be at ease" with the Chinese constantly watching and intimidating them.
The shoal located 124 nautical miles off the Philippines' Luzon Island is a fishing ground accessed by many nationalities.
Vicente Paluan, a skipper of a wooden-hulled boat in the Pangasinan Province of Luzon, said China Coast Guard ships restricted his movement inside the lagoon, a shallow fishing ground in Scarborough.
All in all, he counted six Coast Guard vessels and a number of Chinese commercial fishing boats in the vicinity, he told Kyodo News in mid-March having just returned from an 11-day fishing trip.
The China Coast Guard patrolled at least twice a day, Paluan said. They made hand gestures or chased off fishermen from other countries, telling them to stop fishing and leave in a game of hide-and-seek in open waters, he explained.
Chinese fishing vessels, however, moved around freely. "That's how different (the treatment) is," he said.
On March 2, a China Coast Guard ship risked a collision with a Philippine Coast Guard vessel off Scarborough Shoal.
China responded by saying that Huangyan Dao, its name for Scarborough, is its "inherent territory" and told the Philippines not to interfere with its law enforcement activities.
The Philippines annually harvests over 300,000 metric tons of fish -- mostly scad, mackerel, and grouper -- in the South China Sea. An opposition senator argued Chinese land reclamation activities in the sea have damaged 1,850 hectares of reef ecosystem.
Vice President Leni Robredo, an opposition icon who trails frontrunner Marcos Jr. in the presidential election, said she wants to use the 2016 arbitration as a "leverage" to craft a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea with other Southeast Asian countries to manage tensions in the disputed area.
Duterte is set to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday, but critics doubt the meeting will result in any meaningful concessions from China.
The Philippine leader has mentioned a past verbal agreement with Xi to allow Filipinos to fish in Scarborough Shoal. He said Tuesday, "Philippines and China, we don't have any quarrel and we can talk about the Spratly Islands and probably the fishing rights of my countrymen -- plain talk, nothing else."
