By Ken Endo,
Russia's unnecessary war and invasion of Ukraine is costing many people's lives and has forced more than 2 million refugees to flee their homes according to the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees.
There are numerous things to consider regarding the invasion, but since we are currently in an era of rivalry between China and the United States, I will focus on how Beijing perceives the invasion and how it will affect relations with Moscow.
The topic is important as it will greatly influence Japan's future course of action.
The invasion of Ukraine has put China in an embarrassing position. This is not unexpected since China touts respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity as its fundamental foreign policy principles yet a full-scale invasion is the most extreme form of external interference.
China, moreover, had agreed in a friendship treaty with Ukraine that it would support the latter when threatened, which further puts Beijing in an uncomfortable position.
As China's rivalry with the United States intensifies however, its relationship with Russia has deepened.
Since coming to power, Chinese President Xi Jinping has held more than 30 summits with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. And in contrast to the state leaders who boycotted the Beijing Winter Olympics over China's human rights repression in Xinjiang and elsewhere, Putin attended its opening ceremony.
When they met during Putin's visit, China indicated it shared Russia's national security concerns, together pushing back against the U.S.-led international order. Russia can be considered to be the only major country with which China maintains good relations.
It should be noted that China's sense of national interest is separate from its fundamental principles mentioned above. Sovereignty and non-intervention in domestic affairs are important to China, but less so than national survival and interests that depend on international environment and cooperation.
Therefore, even though Ukraine's invasion has put China in a discomfiting position, Beijing will not end its cooperation with Moscow. It is unacceptable when commiserating with Ukrainians' despair but could be understood when looking at China's perception of its interests.
The problem rises here. When the Chinese leadership makes the connection between the situation facing Ukraine and Taiwan, China exposes its violent side in the same way as Russia.
While Xi was reportedly unwilling to express support for the invasion, as Russia never supported China's reunification of Taiwan by force, he did direct his government to help maintain the Russian economy against sanctions.
If this holds true, it means that the leader of the Chinese Communist Party himself made the linkage between Ukraine and Taiwan in the context of unification by force, or violence itself.
The implication is that if Russia supports China's actions to unify with Taiwan by force, China would recognize Ukraine's invasion by Russia.
People in Taiwan and Ukraine want peaceful lives, are proud of their homelands and cherish their democratic society. But its neighboring leaders who exert enormous power do not even take that into consideration.
We could perceive in Xi's reported comments that he believes powerful countries cooperating together have the right to wield destructive violence, if necessary.
China is facing a headache over the situation it has found itself in over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Some believe this has led Beijing to abstain from voting for the U.N. Security Council resolution condemning Russia over Ukraine.
How true is that?
The Chinese government has refused to describe Russia's attack as an invasion, its leader wants to help Russia, and it has lifted restrictions on Russian wheat imports that had been imposed over fungus concerns.
At their summit during the Beijing Olympics, Xi and Putin agreed to expand the use of their local currencies in mutual trade settlements to increase their independence from the U.S. dollar financial system. They also agreed to increase Russian natural gas exports to China.
The move was to offset sanctions against Russia and can be taken as China's complicity in the invasion and war against Ukraine.
Russia and China have had difficult relations but both countries have in common authoritarian governments that casually repress freedom and human rights. They also share a determination and interest in challenging a U.S.-led global order.
A large part of the international community has turned against Putin over his invasion of Ukraine, making it inevitable for Russia to step up its dependency on China. That is not a bad posture for Beijing.
The increasing entwinement of Beijing and Moscow, with their combined power and will, is a great threat to the current global order on which rest the values of freedom and rule of law.
As a close neighbor to Taiwan, Japan cannot treat the situation in Ukraine as if it is a concern far from its shores.
(Ken Endo is a professor at Hokkaido University's Graduate School of Public Policy.)
