By Tomoyuki Tachikawa,
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's gamble to replace all ministers from the largest faction within his ruling Liberal Democratic Party over a political fundraising scandal could make it more difficult for him to manage the government.
Kishida aimed to end political distrust by excluding lawmakers belonging to the faction, previously led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, but opposition from the biggest intraparty group has intensified, which could prevent him from achieving key policies.
Criticism of Kishida's leadership over the latest scandal has also been mounting, prompting more politicians within the LDP to keep their distance from the administration as speculation has been rife that he would be compelled to resign around the spring.
Many pundits said Kishida has reached a critical moment, as the approval ratings for his Cabinet in media opinion polls have already plunged to their lowest levels since taking office in October 2021, about one year after Abe, Japan's longest-serving prime minister, stepped down.
Benefiting from what Japanese politicians call the "force of numbers," Abe's faction held four ministerial posts in Kishida's government before the latest purge of faction members, including the chief Cabinet secretary, while occupying major positions in the ruling party, such as policy chief.
In the history of the LDP, which has dominated Japan's politics for most of the period since 1955, its largest faction has played a crucial role in decision-making processes, even in selecting the party's leader, who typically becomes prime minister.
A lawmaker with ministerial experience told Kyodo News that if Kishida allocates essential posts to the second- and third-biggest groups within the LDP, Abe's faction will "become a giant non-mainstream force," increasing the risks of internal party instability.
To break the impasse, Kishida has tried to get closer to lawmakers who do not belong to any faction in the ruling party, but one of them said, "I do not want to take up a lost cause."
In fact, while Kishida sounded out former Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada on accepting the position of the chief Cabinet secretary, the unaffiliated 10th-term House of Representatives member rejected the proposal, sources close to the matter said.
The LDP has faced a backlash amid allegations that the faction, which Abe led until he was assassinated last year, failed to declare hundreds of millions of yen in fundraising party revenue in political funding reports in an apparent attempt to create secret slush funds.
Hiroshi Shiratori, a political science professor at Hosei University, suspected that such funds were used for election campaign expenses, saying, "To maintain a giant faction, it has to take care of its lawmakers in every possible way."
Similar accusations of underreporting party income, however, have emerged for the fourth-largest faction, which Kishida headed until last week but decided to leave during his term as premier. He has been lambasted by ruling and opposition lawmakers for failing to sufficiently explain the issue.
As the underreporting is estimated to be in the tens of millions of yen, a source familiar with the LDP's thinking said, "The prime minister has completely stumbled. It is not the time to talk about sweeping away Abe's faction."
Ikuo Gonoi, a politics professor at Takachiho University, said Kishida has pledged to rebuild public trust, but he "has not provided any details about what kind of actions he would take."
Despite his position as the leader of the LDP, he "said nothing substantial, as if it were someone else's problem. It even seemed as if he may not fully grasp the seriousness of the situation."
While there are no clear moves to oust Kishida from power within the ruling bloc, calls might grow for him to step down as the head of the LDP to take responsibility for the political fundraising scandal.
Shigeru Ishiba, a former secretary general of the LDP, said it is "possible" for Kishida to resign shortly after an initial budget for the fiscal year from April 2024 is passed in parliament, which usually takes place in March every year.
The biggest faction, founded in 1979 by the late former Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda, has around 100 out of more than 370 LDP lawmakers, producing four premiers -- Yoshiro Mori, Junichiro Koizumi, Abe and Yasuo Fukuda -- since 2000.
During Koizumi's tenure of over five years through September 2006, the group became the largest force in the LDP.
Related coverage:
Embattled Japan PM Kishida ousts LDP's most powerful faction from Cabinet
Japan PM vows to replace ministers Dec. 14 over funds scandals
FOCUS: Political funds scandals may signal early end of Kishida gov't
