By Keita Nakamura,
The Group of Seven industrialized nations face an increasing need to cooperate with developing countries in the Global South to deliver a strong message one month ahead of the G-7 summit, as they seek to uphold their vision of a rules-based international order challenged by Russia and China.
But winning the backing of such countries, many of which have not sided with the United States and its allies over Russia's war in Ukraine, will not be easy unless there are clear benefits for them doing so, international relations scholars say.
For some countries in the Global South, such as India, the most favorable situation is to "maintain ties with the U.S.-led camp and the China-Russia bloc, to enjoy the benefits of both sides as much as possible," said Toru Ito, a professor at the National Defense Academy of Japan.
"It is a tall order to make nations in the Global South side completely with G-7 countries, so what the G-7 must do is try to prevent them from being drawn closer toward China and Russia," the expert on South Asian security and international relations said.
In a communique issued after a three-day meeting of G-7 foreign ministers in the resort town of Karuizawa in central Japan, the top diplomats on Tuesday underscored the importance of working alongside "partners with emerging or developing economies" in addressing threats that undermine global security and stability.
But the communique from the major industrialized nations did not come up with any substantial initiatives for reaching out to emerging and developing countries that have been struggling from a global food and energy crisis for over a year, exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The Global South is a term that collectively refers to developing nations mainly in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Such countries often value economic ties with China, as well as some form of military cooperation with Russia, and can be ambivalent about the concept of a U.S.-led international order.
"The Global South is not a monolith and there is much variation among countries, but they have been growing increasingly confident that the future order of their global and regional environments depends on themselves, both politically and economically," Ito said.
The term has come under the spotlight since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as many developing nations have not joined the West in imposing economic sanctions on Moscow.
Viewing the sanctions applied to Russia -- a major grain, fertilizer and energy resources producer -- as a factor behind soaring food and fuel prices, many developing countries have felt themselves to be the "biggest victims" of the measures, said Ito.
Dealing with the knock-on effects of the sanctions has been "a far larger problem" for them than the challenge posed to the international order by Russia's invasion of its neighbor, he said, noting that due to the coronavirus pandemic, poorer nations were already struggling economically before the war.
As the G-7 seeks to step up collaboration with countries in the Global South, India is likely to be key, having demonstrated its eagerness to "amplify" the voices of developing economies.
In March, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who will chair the G-7 summit in May, flew to New Delhi to deepen cooperation with India, which took the helm as chair of the Group of 20 advanced and emerging economies this year.
India is seen as a country with the potential to become an economic superpower, overtaking Britain, its former colonial ruler, last year to become the world's fifth-largest economy. India is projected to surpass China to become the world's most populous nation sometime this year.
In dealing with issues of energy, food security and climate change, "it is essential to cooperate with a range of partners in the international community," Kishida said during his visit to New Delhi, adding that he has high expectations about India's role, inviting the South Asian country to the G-7 summit from May 19 to 21.
Kishida also explained that creating a "united voice" in the international community by including nations from the Global South will be key to bringing an end to Russia's war against Ukraine as soon as possible.
But India has been pursuing a vision of "strategic autonomy" in foreign affairs and has long-standing military ties with Moscow. It has not joined in sanctioning Russia despite being a member of the Quad group, which involves Japan, the United States and Australia, and which commits itself to upholding the rules-based international order.
India has also been buying Russian oil, apparently lured by Moscow's offer of energy at a discounted price, as the West cuts back Russian oil and gas imports as part of their economic sanctions.
"If the G-7 nations want to make developing economies decouple from Russia, they need to provide some alternatives to make up for (the potential losses)," said Ito.
What could also complicate cooperation efforts with Global South nations is the memory of past colonial rule by Western countries and anti-U.S. sentiment exacerbated by recent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The Global South nations "take a cold view" toward Western powers promoting values such as democracy, said Yuko Ido, a junior research fellow of an institute at the Tokyo University of Foreign Studies, with expertise in the politics and economies of the Middle East and North Africa.
The G-7, which groups Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States, plus the European Union, must also face the reality that its global economic significance is declining.
The total share of the seven nations' gross domestic product in the world economy has dropped from over 50 percent in 1990 to about 30 percent in 2020, according to data from the International Monetary Fund.
China, the world's second-largest economy after the United States, meanwhile, has been expanding its influence in regions such as Africa and Asia through its signature Belt and Road infrastructure initiative, although the program has been criticized for saddling developing countries with debt.
A global environment where developed nations in the "rich North" can win over the "poor South" to their side through financial assistance on the back of overwhelming economic power has become a thing of the past, Ido said.
As for what Japan can do so far to beef up ties with the Global South, Ido said it is important to boost engagement with other multilateral frameworks, including the G-20, while making an effort to respect them as "partners on an equal footing."
Ito, meanwhile, said Japan should utilize its position as the G-7's only Asian member, to better communicate with India and other South Asian states skeptical of Western narratives.
"Although it may not be that easy, India and others may take what Japan says seriously," he said.
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