By Kent E. Calder,
Ever since first declaring his candidacy for president in early 2015, Donald Trump has been a favorite subject of discussion among Democrats.
He has continually been featured on CNN and MSNBC, the two most prominent left-of-center cable news networks. His latest antics, peccadilloes, and threats to the constitutional order are often featured in The New York Times and The Washington Post, while being continually assailed by Democratic politicians.
By contrast, mainstream Republican media and politicians are remarkably quiet about Trump of late, despite his recent presidency and continuing apparent standing among voters of their own party in national opinion polls.
Most Democratic leaders and commentators clearly abhor Trump personally and reject virtually all that he stands for. They see him as corrupt and immoral due to his corporate manipulations, his refusal to release personal income tax returns and his treatment of women.
They see him as a threat to constitutional governance, and indeed to American democracy itself, due to his apparent encouragement for the January 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol; his refusal to return classified documents; and his blatant denial of legitimate election results. Some also see him as ethnically discriminatory, due to recent association with known and declared anti-Semites.
I see two important reasons why Democrats do, however, continue to focus on Trump as a favorite topic of public discussion.
First of all, many see Trump as a distinctly vulnerable candidate and disruptor within his own party, whom they are confident they could beat in 2024, and therefore want to encourage him to run. And secondly, from a shorter-term tactical standpoint, attacking Trump relieves important political dilemmas for Democrats within their own party.
Trump's ability to enhance Democratic political fortunes, and conversely hurt the Republicans, showed itself clearly in the November 2022 midterm election returns.
Contrary to historical precedent, where the party outside the White House has typically gained a substantial number of seats, the Republicans this time failed to gain control of the Senate, losing crucial races in Pennsylvania and Georgia. And they only secured the House of Representatives majority by an unexpectedly narrow margin of nine seats, 223 to 212.
Trump's intervention in selecting unelectable candidates personally loyal to him, as well as his own 2020 election denial, were widely considered key reasons for these unexpected Republican defeats, which of course conversely elated the Democrats.
Going forward, Trump's candidacy seems likely to please President Joe Biden in particular, as it gives momentum to Biden's own complex prospects. Biden, after all, has actually defeated Trump, and recent polls continue to accord him higher support ratings than Trump.
Biden just celebrated his 80th birthday, however, and would be 86 on completing his second term, if re-elected. Should he not complete a second term, the current prospect is that Vice President Kamala Harris would succeed him.
Her popularity is significantly lower than Biden, and she has many potential intraparty rivals, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom; Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer; Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttegieg; and Senator Amy Klobuchar.
Political currents inside the Democratic Party are thus complex, both about President Biden and Vice President Harris.
Biden apparently wants to run for re-election and has recently changed the sequence of 2024 Democratic primaries, putting South Carolina, where he is most popular, first, to enhance his chances.
Trump's recently declared candidacy strengthens Biden's leverage to make such changes, postponing and possibly defusing internal frictions within Democratic ranks that might otherwise emerge.
Trump's candidacy pleases many Democrats in other ways also. It, of course, gives them an opportunity to hold the attractive moral high ground and draw on the support of independents, as well as some Republicans, who are personally opposed to Trump.
And Trump's strength with the populist segment of the Republican base, as well as name recognition, makes it hard for more moderate and conventional potential Republican candidates, ranging from former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, to gain traction.
Florida Gov. Ronald DeSantis, the only real potential rival to Trump for the Republican base, is a potential alternative, but is only 44 years old, so can afford to wait. And he may be inhibited from running in 2024 by the danger of a primary battle with Trump inside the Republican Party, a prospect which also delights the Democrats.
DeSantis won an overwhelming victory last month in his bid for re-election as governor of Florida, even though the Republicans had a surprising number of setbacks across the country.
He has an articulate, charismatic wife, just recovered successfully from breast cancer; a charming young family; a populist appeal similar to that of Trump; no apparent scandals; and a Harvard law degree.
Many observers feel that DeSantis could ultimately win a head-to-head battle with Trump, given his own formidable credentials, and Trump's notoriety.
Instead, the greater danger to a DeSantis candidacy in 2024 could well be the prospect of Trump breaking out of the Republican Party, and running a third-party candidacy, if he were to lose to DeSantis.
Trump, after all, was for many years a Democrat, and has never shown clear loyalty to the Republican Party or its other leaders, when such party loyalty threatened his interests.
Trump's immense ego also makes it difficult for him to accept defeat, and a third-party candidacy could be a means for him to continue his struggle in the hope of ultimate victory.
A Trump third-party move, against DeSantis or any other Republican candidate who might happen to defeat him in the primary elections, would of course delight the Democrats, as it would seriously split the Republican ranks.
History shows that in American politics third-party movements cannot win, but can easily play a deadly spoiler role. In 1912, for example, ex-President Theodore Roosevelt, a Republican, launched the "Bull Moose" third-party movement, after being defeated by incumbent President William Howard Taft. Roosevelt's efforts resulted in ultimately electing Democrat Woodrow Wilson, the opponent of both Roosevelt and Taft.
Democrats over a century later might look forward to a similar outcome in 2024, with a Trump third-party movement against Republican candidate DeSantis re-electing an 82-year old President Biden.
It is no wonder the Democrats are trying their best to prop up the candidacy of a declining Trump, despite -- or actually because of -- all his shortcomings.
(Kent E. Calder is the director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.)
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