By Masakatsu Ota,
A top Ukrainian diplomat in Tokyo revealed that the nation's current goal in the ongoing war which was initiated by the Russian invasion five months ago is to restore all territories occupied by Russia, including Russian-annexed Crimea, by the end of this year at the earliest.
"In our military calculations, in our plans, if everything will go as we think, we may, we will liberate our territories before the end of this year," Ambassador Sergiy Korsunsky said in a recent interview with Kyodo News.
"It may not be the end of the war, but we hope to push the Russian army back to Russia before the end of the year," Korsunsky said.
Suggesting that more sophisticated arms like High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, known as HIMARS, and new advanced air defense systems provided by the United States and European nations will be deployed, he said, "We are now trying to make proper preparations for a counter-offense."
The seasoned diplomat who has been serving in Japan since 2020 also explained his nation's hopeful game plan to bring about peace.
"There is a clear plan on how to move forward...what I know, exactly, is that those plans assume that before the end of the year we might liberate our territory. And then, next year, probably during the springtime, until springtime, we will be negotiating, with our partners, a permanent cease-fire."
Korsunsky added that negotiations should include subjects like "reparations" and "prosecution of war criminals."
He emphasized that more crippling sanctions against Russia would be a key to realizing the scenario he revealed.
"We expect that Japan and (other members of) the G-7 will continue to exercise the sanctions regime in a very strict manner. We expect that even more sanctions should be imposed on Russia," specifically a ban on buying Russian oil and gas, Korsunsky said.
Korsunsky urged China and India to suspend oil trade with Russia. "It's a pity" that China, in particular, takes Russia "the wrong way."
"They don't see that this regime is an enemy of humankind," he said.
There is some concern among diplomats and experts that Russia may use nuclear weapons if Ukraine succeeds in repelling Russian forces in the Crimea Peninsula and Donbas region, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed as innate Russian territories.
Korsunsky indicated his nation should be protected by the nuclear umbrella by Western nuclear powers, namely the United States, Britain and France, as Putin's use of a nuclear weapon would cross the red line.
In 1994, Ukraine signed a document called the "Budapest Memorandum" in which Russia, the United States and Britain "reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine," in return for Ukraine abandoning the nuclear arsenal left by the Soviet Union.
The memorandum also said "none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations."
Korsunsky emphatically pointed out that these security commitments were repeatedly broken by Russia.
"When a country which inherited nuclear capability, a huge nuclear capability, gave it up, it was very important in the history of nuclear armament and disarmament, that there is a way to disarm a nuclear state, in exchange for a security guarantee."
At that time, the Ukrainian government had decided to prioritize "building its independent economy" rather than bearing the cost of maintaining nuclear weapons in the absence of threats from other states, he said.
"What we see now is...a brutal violation of this document. That means that now, if you talk to Kim Jong Un and tell him 'Look, give up nuclear weapons and the missile program. Japan, South Korea, the Americans, will give you security guarantees. We are not going to touch you. Just stop doing this.' And Kim Jong Un will tell you, 'You already gave guarantees, and you didn't fulfill it. Why should we trust you?'"
He said the repeated breaches of the Budapest Memorandum would damage the credibility of the international nuclear order underpinned by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
