Japan may be set to accumulate a record medal total for a Winter Olympics, but golds could be hard to come by with national icon Yuzuru Hanyu on a list of those who miss out.
According to the final pre-games prognostication by Olympic data crunchers Nielsen's Gracenote, Japan should tally an incredible 19 medals, enough for it to land in the top-10 on their virtual medal table and six more than its previous best established four years ago.
The company believes speed skating queen Miho Takagi and ski jumping stars Ryoyu Kobayashi and Sara Takanashi will be the three Japanese athletes who mount the podium's top step at the Feb. 4-20 games in Beijing and the mountains to its northwest.
Hanyu, who is targeting a record-equaling third consecutive men's figure skating Olympic gold, will be topped in the Chinese capital by his archrival Nathan Chen of the United States, the prediction says.
"Nathan Chen and Hanyu have dominated men's figure skating for years but rarely meet each other in competition," Simon Gleave, Gracenote's head of analysis said.
"However, when they have done so since Hanyu's Olympic win, it is Chen who has always come out on top. Chen beat Hanyu at the world championships in 2019 and 2021 and also at the Grand Prix Final at the end of 2019."
But the calculation could change somewhat if Hanyu can land his much-talked-about quad axel -- a jump that would separate him from the bunch.
Gracenote, however, has factored in this possibility and still backs Chen to take his first Olympic gold.
"At the Japanese figure skating championships, Hanyu attempted a quadruple axel, a jump which has never been successfully landed before. He almost did it but made a two-footed landing," Gleave explained.
"If he achieves this jump during the free skate in Beijing and is perfect on all of his other jumps, he can beat Chen."
"However, Chen, like Hanyu, also lands multiple quad jumps in competition which is why he holds the world record score. So, even with a quad axel, Hanyu wouldn't be guaranteed to win but it would increase his chance of winning."
Takagi is currently tied with her speed skating countrywoman Nao Kodaira as the Japanese female with the most Winter Olympic medals, with each tallying three.
Takagi plans to race five events in Beijing and Kodaira looks set to take on four, with Gracenote tabbing the former for 1,500-meter gold and 1,000 bronze and the latter for silver over 500, while the team pursuit squad, likely with both skaters in it, is forecast for bronze.
At five, Japan's speed skating medal count is to only be matched by snowboard, Gracenote believes.
Yuto Totsuka and Ayumu Hirano have been for much of the season the hot tip for a halfpipe podium, with either capable of taking gold on their day, but Gracenote gives the nod to Australian Scotty James with Totsuka in silver and Hirano taking bronze on his return from a Summer Olympic skateboarding foray.
"The halfpipe is an incredibly competitive competition and these three are incredibly close," Gleave said.
"James' win at the X Games is what had made him the virtual gold medalist but it could honestly be any of these three. Not only that, but Shaun White is back, recording a podium place the other week, to make the competition even tougher to forecast."
Gracenote sees ski jumper Kobayashi taking gold in the large hill event and silver on the normal hill, results that would be a culmination of a season in which he has turned a world championships flame out into seven World Cup wins and two Olympic medals.
Takanashi has long been considered a gold medal contender but has failed to live up to expectations at her first two Olympic Games. Her return from two games is just one bronze from 2018 and a fourth-place finish in 2014.
In China, Gracenote believes Takanashi will finally get over the hump and take gold.
