By Tomoyuki Tachikawa,
Hopes among residents of Beijing are increasing that the government may move to ease the strict enforcement of its "zero COVID policy" after Sunday's end of the Winter Olympics in the capital, but with a key ruling party gathering slated for later this year, the opposite could be the case.
At the Communist Party's twice-a-decade congress in fall, Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to secure a controversial third term as the country's leader, which would allow him to lay the groundwork to hold on to power for life.
Rather than relaxing anti-epidemic regulations, Xi's leadership could tighten them to ensure it is able to trumpet its achievements in bringing the novel coronavirus under control.
Lingering skepticism about the efficacy of China's home-developed vaccines has also apparently made the Communist-led government reluctant to let its guard down against the virus, first detected in the central city of Wuhan in late 2019.
People in Beijing have become concerned that if the tough zero COVID policy, which they have already endured for more than two years, remains in place until the end of the party congress, it would cause more negative effects than positive ones.
"The Communist Party cannot abandon its current way of tackling the outbreak, given that the number of infections is indeed much smaller than that in other nations like Japan, let alone the United States," a diplomatic source in Beijing said.
Since the highly contagious Omicron variant was first confirmed in China last December, the authorities have imposed complete lockdowns on some cities and conducted mass testing affecting tens of millions of citizens in the targeted areas.
People across the country are also required at all times to present a "health code" on smartphones detailing their status with regard to infection risk before boarding trains as well as entering shopping malls and office buildings.
China has meanwhile required foreigners to quarantine at a designated facility for more than 14 days upon arrival in the country. During the period, they are completely prohibited from stepping out of their room.
As a result, the total number of new infections in the mainland in the 10-day period from Feb. 4, when the Beijing Olympics kicked off, was just around 750, while that in Japan stood at about 900,000, according to official data.
"China is really proud that it has successfully curbed the virus by restricting the movement of people and mass-testing as well as carrying out quarantine and lockdown operations," the diplomatic source said.
"The increase in infections has peaked in China unlike democratic nations and daily life has returned to normal at home. Xi must be thinking that under such circumstances, Chinese citizens have become more supportive of the Communist Party's rule," he said.
"That's why Xi cannot shift away from the zero COVID policy. China is expected to bolster regulations until the congress, which would pave the way for Xi to become a historic figure equivalent to Mao Zedong," founder of modern China, the source added.
China quickly moved to develop its own COVID-19 vaccines -- Sinovac and Sinopharm -- after the pandemic began without approving those produced by other countries including the United States and Britain.
A Chinese physician who declined to be identified but is knowledgeable about official thinking about vaccines, however, told Kyodo News that even among Chinese government officials, there is doubt about the safety and efficacy of vaccines made by the nation's state-owned pharmaceutical companies.
Chinese health authorities said this month more than 3 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been administered in the country with a population of 1.4 billion, but it is difficult to evaluate their effectiveness in infection prevention, the physician said.
China's vaccines do not use a new technology known as messenger RNA, or mRNA, which gives instructions for cells to make a harmless "spike protein" that resembles one found in the novel coronavirus.
Instead, China's vaccines are based on a traditional method of putting an "inactivated" germ into human bodies to trigger an immune response.
They are believed to reduce the risk of infection with the virus by up to 60 percent, making them less good than mRNA vaccines in preventing COVID-19. The latter showed efficacy rates of around 95 percent in clinical trials before the outbreak of variants.
"If the number of patients increases after the zero COVID policy is lifted, the efficacy of China's vaccines would be called into question. This is another reason why the Communist Party has to depend on lockdowns or other strict regulations," he added.
Some Beijing parents, meanwhile, have reported pressure from kindergartens and schools to get their children vaccinated, despite the risk of side effects for younger people being unknown. Beijing education authorities, however, have denied there is any official policy behind the incidents.
"We don't know anything about whether Chinese vaccines are safe and efficient for children, but sooner or later, we might be pressured to make my son receive them as long as we live in China," said Nanami Takahashi, a 44-year-old Japanese woman whose son goes to a kindergarten in the capital. "I'm very worried about the health and future of my son."
Yuto Sato, a teacher at a Japanese school in China, said, "I've recognized that the physical strength of my students has been clearly weakening as they have been forced to take online classes in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic."
"Children have already had a terrible time for the past few years, so I hope they will not suffer a loss anymore by receiving Chinese vaccines," he added.
