By Tomoyuki Tachikawa,
As Sino-U.S. tensions are certain to linger even after Democrat Joe Biden assumes power in Washington, China may make conciliatory gestures to its neighbors in 2021 ahead of key events such as the 100th anniversary of the ruling Communist Party.
To thwart U.S. attempt to dilute China's regional influence in tandem with other Asian countries, the leadership of President Xi Jinping, who is believed eager to become the nation's leader for life, is expected to avoid actions that would provoke them.
Japan, China's neighbor and major trading partner that is one of the closest U.S. allies, might be forced to map out a well-balanced diplomatic strategy, which would not hurt its ties with the mainland while building credibility with the incoming Biden administration.
China will mark the centenary of the Communist Party in July 2021. In February 2022, the world's second-largest economy will host the Beijing Winter Olympics and Paralympics before it holds the twice-a-decade congress of the ruling party in autumn that year.
The events will come amid speculation that Xi, who became the head of the party in 2012, has been paving the way to hold on to power beyond a second term. In 2018, China removed from its Constitution the two-term limit for the president and vice president.
"China is extremely sensitive to the significance of the upcoming 100th anniversary, the Winter Olympics, and the 20th party congress," said Stephen Nagy, a senior associate professor of politics at International Christian University in Tokyo.
These are "critical events to consolidate domestic power of Xi and bolster Beijing's international reputation," said Nagy, also a visiting fellow with the Japan Institute for International Affairs.
"In order to do this, a de-escalation in tensions (with the United States) is essential but unlikely," although China hopes Biden will be "less confrontational and more predictable such that they can re-establish a strategic dialogue," he said.
Under the circumstances, Beijing is "unlikely to engage in regional behavior that risks disrupting these critical events as China, the party and Xi would lose face leading to political instability," Nagy added.
Since the increase in new infections with the novel coronavirus apparently peaked in late February 2020, China has been aiming to deepen relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations by promising to provide vaccines if it succeeds in developing them.
Beijing has been also trying to promote economic cooperation with Japan and South Korea, both U.S. allies, as strains with Washington over trade, security and state-of-the-art technology have been intensifying for the past few years.
In November, China signed the world's biggest free trade deal, called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, along with 14 other Asia-Pacific countries including Japan, South Korea and the 10 ASEAN member states.
Moreover, China has expressed its willingness to enter the 11-country Trans-Pacific Partnership, as it has been keen to boost its clout in the region. The United States is not participating in either the RCEP or the TPP.
China's diplomacy "generally does not vacillate between countries" and it has sought to "have better relations with Japan, South Korea or ASEAN to prevent them from joining hands to contain China," said Victor Teo, a fellow at the University of Cambridge.
Beijing's goals have "always been to cultivate positive relations with most countries, particularly her Asian neighbors," he said. "China is likely to focus on vaccine and economic recovery as key components of her diplomacy" in 2021.
Among Asia-Pacific nations, meanwhile, Tokyo is in a unique position, given that China's policy toward Japan "hinges very heavily on what Beijing thinks the Americans will say or do," Teo said.
A diplomatic source in Beijing said, "Of course, Japan's alliance with the United States is the cornerstone of the country's diplomacy and security, so Japan should in principle put more emphasis on ties with the United States than on those with China."
"China, however, is one of the most important trading partners for Japan and vice versa. Japan has no option but to enhance cooperation with China as the economy has plunged in the aftermath of the virus pandemic," the source said.
"In addition, China is Japan's external neighbor and Japan should make every effort to avert clash with China for regional peace and stability. Yet, Tokyo's getting too close to Beijing could irritate Biden, whose stance to China is still unclear," he said.
"Japan should seriously consider how to interact with China, while closely watching how U.S. diplomacy toward China will change and trying to create a relationship of trust with the Biden administration," he added.
Kong Xuanyou, China's ambassador to Tokyo, was quoted by the embassy as urging Japan in early December to "maintain a good balance between China and the United States."
"As far as Japan is concerned, ties with the United States are not all, and it is not in Japan's interest to harm normal cooperation with China for the sake of Japan-U.S. relations," Kong was quoted as saying.
The diplomatic source voiced fears that Beijing might pretend to extend an olive branch to its neighbors as long as its ties with Washington show little sign of improving, but it is set to continue increasing its assertiveness in the East and South China seas.
Tai Wan-chin, a professor emeritus at Tamkang University in New Taipei City, said, "China may not soften its position on the Senkaku Islands," referring to a territorial row between Beijing and Tokyo.
Chinese Foreign Ministry Wang Yi told reporters during his visit to Tokyo in late November that Beijing will "safeguard China's sovereignty" over the land features in the East China Sea and justified its sending of official vessels to the area.
The group of uninhabited islets, called Diaoyu in China, are controlled by Tokyo but claimed by Beijing. Sino-Japanese relations have been often frayed by the territorial issue.
Tai said, "Likewise, China will not soften its policy in the South China Sea," pointing out that Beijing has recently tapped Ouyang Yujing, a diplomat who has taken a tough posture on the maritime dispute, for the new ambassador to Malaysia.
China has conflicting territorial claims with four ASEAN members -- Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei -- as well as Taiwan in the sea, a strategic waterway through which more than one-third of global trade passes.
The Straits Times, Singapore's mainstream daily, said Ouyang's appointment could mean "more authoritative decisions" over the territorial spat.
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