By Myat Thura,
Myanmar will hold a general election on Sunday amid the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic in the country, with the ruling party headed by highly popular government leader Aung San Suu Kyi widely expected to win the most votes again.
The voting will be Myanmar voters' second opportunity in recent history, following the first in 2015, to participate in the electoral process with a full range of both national and ethnic parties.
Myanmar has population of over 54 million and more than 37 million are eligible voters in this election.
There are a total 664 seats in parliament, but only 476 of them are up for grabs because 166 are filled by military appointees.
Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy needs to win at least 322 seats, which is almost 68 percent of the contesting seats, to get a simple majority in parliament and form the new government.
The military-backed opposition Union Solidarity and Development Party led by a group of retired army generals only needs to win 156 seats as it can rely on the 166 military appointees.
But in the 2015 election, the USDP won only 42 seats or 8.5 percent of the contested ones, while the NLD secured 390.
This time also, analysts believe it is virtually impossible for the USDP to win enough seats to threaten NLD rule because people in Myanmar continue to harbor strong feelings of resentment against the military for harsh experiences suffered under the past military rule.
Myanmar has been ruled by the military in various forms since 1962. The 2010 election, boycotted by the NLD, left the USDP as the ruling party until it was ousted in 2015 by the NLD.
"With that background added by overwhelming support for Suu Kyi's leadership personality, the NLD party would definitely win the election," Kyee Myint, a veteran lawyer and political commentator in Yangon, told Kyodo News.
The NLD won the 2015 election in a landslide with pledges to amend the military-favored Constitution and reform the country into a federal democratic state composed of different ethnic minority states.
But it has failed to deliver results in both areas since coming to power in March 2016. The party largely blamed the failures on the military and the Constitution drafted and approved in 2008 during the then military junta era.
Fast forward to 2020, despite such failures and with disappointments on the economic side, public support for Suu Kyi and her party remains overwhelming.
There are more than 90 political parties contesting in the polls, but the NLD and USDP are only two major political parties running for almost all the contested seats.
Some are ethnic minority parties such as Shan Nationalities League for Democracy focusing mainly on their own ethnic region.
At the national level, there are also the People's Party led by prominent pro-democracy activist Ko Ko Gyi, who spent 17 years in jail for his fight against military rule, and the People's Pioneer Party led by a prominent businesswomen Thet Thet Khine, an elected lawmaker who left the NLD last year after disputes over policies.
Despite not being satisfied with the performance of NLD government, members of the business community in the largest city Yangon also believe the ruling party will win this time again.
Speaking to Kyodo News, Maung Maung Lay, vice chairman of Union of Myanmar Chamber of Commerce and Industry, criticized the ruling party for prioritizing loyalty over capability in forming the government and allowing a sense of general stagnation.
He does, however, acknowledge the Constitution is also a major factor dragging down the administration.
"The NLD government since it came up did its best to better administer the country and for the development. But it is like they were being forced to run with their legs tied up because of this Constitution," he said.
When Suu Kyi came to power in 2016, the majority of the bureaucrats down to director level in the administration were ex-military officers appointed either during the previous military-backed government or the earlier junta. A large number of them still exist in the key bureaucratic positions for various reasons, including lack of human resources in the country.
Despite such unsatisfactory performance, public response to local media outlets and the campaign rallies both online and on the ground all shows the majority public supports Suu Kyi and her NLD overwhelmingly.
Maung Maung Lay explained that most continue to support the NLD administration because there are some good aspects such as imposition of the anti-corruption measures.
"Corrupt practices of the government officials have been significantly reduced during the NLD term and a lot of us highly appreciate this," he said, adding that the business sector wants the party to be "more proactive rather than being conservative."
As the election gets close the administration also endured allegations of voter disenfranchisement over voting cancellations in ethnic minority party stronghold areas in conflict stricken Rakhine State and lack of efforts to ensure voting rights for hundreds of thousands of minority Rohingya Muslims in the area.
The cancellations in Rakhine State account for up to 1.2 million disenfranchised voters, not including the 600,000 Rohingya people who remain barred from voting, according to Human Rights Watch.
Smaller national and ethnic minority parties have complained that the NLD as a ruling party is getting the advantage in organizing party campaigns and rallies under strict coronavirus regulations that prohibit most such activities.
The USDP and some smaller parties earlier suggested postponing the election, citing rising coronavirus cases, but authorities rejected that, saying it would be impossible to rearrange the logistics and procedural requirements on time within the limited time frame to convene the new parliament under the Constitution.
Myanmar has been reporting around 1,000 daily coronavirus infections since the beginning of October and the total number of infections had topped 57,935 by Thursday evening.
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