The Pacific island territory of New Caledonia will again vote on Sunday on whether to become independent of France.
The weekend vote is the second of three possible referenda negotiated between Paris and pro-independence groups in 1998 and comes two years after 56.7 percent of the New Caledonians who voted decided against cutting ties with France in 2018.
Although the outcome of Sunday's referendum remains uncertain, the territory will have another opportunity to vote on independence if more than 50 percent of voters again choose to remain with France.
Located about 17,000 kilometers from Paris, New Caledonia became a French territory in 1853 whereupon it was initially used as a penal colony. Since then, independence has remained a goal of the indigenous Kanak people who make up almost 40 percent of the overseas territory's almost 270,000 citizens.
Results from the first independence referendum in 2018 were closer than most anticipated, and at the time pro-independence groups saw the outcome as a small victory which would help build momentum in future votes.
However, the global impact of the coronavirus pandemic and economic uncertainty surrounding the potential shutdown of a nickel factory could weigh heavily on voters' minds as they go to the polling booths on Sunday.
Brazilian-owned mining giant Vale announced in December that it would sell 95 percent of its nickel plant there following years of losses.
New Caledonia is the fifth-largest nickel producer in the world, and income from the industry makes up almost 20 percent of the territory's gross domestic product. As one of three nickel-mining companies in the territory, closure of Vale's operation would cause widespread job losses.
The territory's mining industry, combined with financial aid from Paris -- which accounts for roughly 15 percent of GDP -- means New Caledonia is a relatively wealthy territory, unlike its neighbors in the Pacific.
However, wealth is unequally distributed. Poverty in the predominantly Kanak regions is up to six times higher than in the territory's South Province where Europeans are the largest ethnic group.
Unsurprisingly, results of the 2018 independence vote similarly split down racial lines.
European-dominant regions, including the capital Noumea, overwhelmingly chose to remain with France, while areas predominantly home to Kanaks voted heavily in favor of independence.
According to Australia's Lowy Institute think tank, Europeans make up 27 percent of New Caledonia's population.
With the difference of roughly 18,000 votes between the "yes" and "no" results of the 2018 referendum, this year both sides of the debate are courting the 33,000-odd voters who refrained from voting.
However, with no opinion poll results released in the past six months, it is difficult to predict how successful campaigning has been.
Under the Noumea Accord, signed in 1998, New Caledonia will have three opportunities to hold an independence referendum. If the result of Sunday's vote is "no," the next opportunity to vote will be in 2022.
