Japan's economy in the April-June period is projected to shrink an annualized real 11.08 percent from the previous quarter, marking the third consecutive quarter of contraction and the largest drop in over 11 years due to the coronavirus pandemic, according to a survey released Thursday of economists at private institutions.
The economists at 24 private institutions predict an average on-quarter contraction of 2.93 percent in the country's gross domestic product on a seasonally adjusted basis in the period, according to the Japan Center for Economic Research that conducted the survey from April 6 to 8.
It would be the biggest annualized contraction since 17.8 percent in the January-March quarter of 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
The economists also projected that GDP in the January-March period will shrink an annualized 4.06 percent.
The institute said the economists made their projections after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday declared a state of emergency and announced a largest-ever 108 trillion yen ($990 billion) emergency package to cushion the economic fallout from the virus outbreak.
The state of emergency is effective through May 6 for Tokyo, Osaka and five other prefectures that have seen a surge in virus infections in recent weeks. Many businesses have been asked to close, though there is no legal penalty for noncompliance.
The stimulus package was designed to help households and small business operators, though recipients need to meet eligibility requirements set by the government.
Private consumption is forecast to drop 2.98 percent in the April-June period from the previous quarter, while capital spending is projected to fall 3.19 percent.
Exports of goods and services are estimated to shrink 11.87 percent, with imports forecast to decline 6.38 percent.
In the July-September quarter, the economists expect annualized growth of 5.11 percent.
The government has said GDP shrank an annualized 7.1 percent in the October-December period of last year, hit by a sales tax hike from 8 percent to 10 percent in October and a devastating typhoon. It will release preliminary figures for the January-March quarter on May 18.