The opposition camp in Japan is expected to fall back into disarray after Sunday's general election, having once again failed to give birth to a political force that can rival the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's stable five-year leadership has put the brakes on Japan's "revolving door" premiership that has seen many prime ministers come and go since the mid-2000s, while creating opportunities for new parties to move in and out of the national political arena.

As long as the current electoral system for the lower house remains unchanged, analysts say, a full-fledged realignment of the opposition bloc in Japan is unlikely, while the spread of social media has helped diversify individual values.

In the wake of Abe's decision to dissolve the House of Representatives, popular Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike quickly established the conservative Party of Hope. This triggered the disintegration of the Democratic Party, formerly the main opposition, many of whose members joining her party.

Speculation mounted at one point that the new party would eat into the LDP's majority in the lower house.

The Party of Hope, however, struggled to garner public support as it never become clear what Koike, who did not run in the election, is trying to achieve in national politics. She was also criticized for her emphasis on catchy slogans rather than policy specifics.

In addition, forces to challenge the LDP were divided as the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan was formed as a refuge for the liberal wing of the collapsing main opposition by former chief Cabinet secretary Yukio Edano, after Koike said she would "exclude" left-leaning Democratic Party members from her party.

Both the Party of Hope and the CDPJ failed to obtain enough seats to threaten the LDP, which retained a governing majority in the 465-seat lower house.

"Although many Democratic Party members joined the Party of Hope to capitalize on the popularity of Ms. Koike, things did not go as they wished. Koike's new party is set to split sooner or later," said Jun Iio, a professor of politics at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.

He added that the opposition camp is expected to "plunge into disarray and become weaker," possibly allowing the LDP to stay in power for some time to come.


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Since the early 1990s, various parties have emerged to challenge the LDP, which was created in 1955 through the merger of two conservative parties -- the Liberal Party and the Japan Democratic Party. But to date the LDP has been ousted from power only twice, for around 11 months from 1993 to 1994 and for about three years from 2009.

Most of the new parties, including the then largest opposition New Frontier Party formed in 1994 and the Democratic Party of Japan that was in power for around three years until December 2012, have since become defunct.

Behind the weakening of Japan's opposition force is an electoral system for the lower house that has promoted the proliferation of small parties while benefiting the LDP, which has already established a firm power base, political commentator Norio Toyoshima said.

Since 1996, lower house elections have been contested under a polling system that combines single-seat constituencies with proportional representation.

Each voter casts two ballots at a polling station -- one to choose a candidate in a single-seat constituency and the other to select a party for proportional representation.

In Sunday's election, 289 candidates were elected from single-seat districts and the remaining 176 through proportional representation in 11 regional blocks.

"The single-seat constituency system was introduced in a bid to establish a two-party system in Japan, like in the United States and in Britain. Initially, many expected that in the future the LDP and the other large party would battle for power and alternate in running the government," Toyoshima said.

Prior to the adoption of the single-seat constituency, Japan's political system had been dubbed the "one and one-half party system," under which the LDP maintained power and the then largest opposition Japan Socialist Party secured around half the number of seats of the LDP under the constituency system with multiple seats given to each district.

But with the same party staying in power, bribery scandals often cropped up, undermining public distrust in politics.

The single-seat constituency system is believed to promote two-party politics given that it is difficult for smaller parties, which do not have strong support groups and adequate funds, to take first place in an electoral district.

"But the two-party system has not been realized in Japan so far, as the proportional representation system was also introduced in consideration of small parities," Toyoshima said.

"If the electoral system is not reformed, the LDP is likely to remain strong with others remaining weak," he added.

Iio, meanwhile, said the spread of social media is expected to promote a "new party boom" in Japan, as it has in recent years in other countries including those in Europe.

"With old media, such as print media and television, losing their power to shape public opinion, Japanese voters may start to hold an even greater variety of political views," Iio said. "Under the circumstances, many political parties might be created."

"As people's values have been diversifying, it will be extremely difficult to achieve a realignment of the opposition force in Japan, unless a great organizer emerges," Iio added.


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