The weeklong love fest by America's establishment for the late Senator John McCain was a sharp riposte to the angry man-child occupying the White House.

While the elite of U.S. politics and foreign policy attended McCain's memorial service in Washington Sept. 1, days before the mid-term congressional campaign started in earnest, President Donald Trump spent the day fuming, tweeting and golfing. Pointedly not invited by the Arizona senator, who on his deathbed had carefully choreographed the week of remembrances, Trump was there in spirit.


[Getty/Kyodo]

At the nationally televised event, speaker after speaker, including his two predecessors Barack Obama and George W. Bush, pointed to the virtues of civility, honor, public service and bipartisanship that McCain represented -- and in contrast, without naming him, that Trump did not. (McCain wasn't without his own sins; His support, among many decisions, of the 2003 Iraq invasion, which helped send the Mideast up in flames, attests to that.)

The lack of those virtues in the eyes of voters looks to cost Trump's Republican Party its majority in the House of Representatives Nov. 6, as various polls and by-elections indicate.

In a suburb of Kansas City, Missouri recently, Democratic Party Sen. Claire McCaskill, whose closely-watched race is rated a tossup, said that her party's supporters were more energized than Republicans -- and against GOP policies this year. (In a state that Trump won by over 18 points, left unsaid was also the revulsion to the president that's driving Democrats -- possibly even more than mere policy differences.) Voter turnout beyond that of a normal off-year election would help her party. "I've never felt an election like this," she said.

Nonetheless, the turn against Trump among suburban Republicans, especially women, and swing voters along with an animated opposition may not be strong enough for Democrats to take the Senate.

Still, the loss of the House could stall Trump in his tracks. To vent anger or distract the public, the Tweeter-in Chief might lash out against perceived enemies, both domestic and foreign, with disastrous results, such as triggering a constitutional crisis by firing Russia-probe special counsel Robert Mueller or a war.

A Democrat-controlled House might also lead to Trump's impeachment, as that chamber serves as a prosecutor in case of indictment for high crimes and misdemeanors. Meanwhile, the Senate, which deliberates that charge like a court, couldn't expel him from office without a two-thirds majority. An unsuccessful impeachment might only bolster his backing among his base in a potential 2020 re-election bid.

More likely, flipping the House means a barrage of investigations into Russia-related and conflict of interest allegations, among some 18 topics cited by Democrats. Importantly, House committees could force testimony and disclosure of documents using their subpoena power. There're already over 100 formal requests by Democrats, which Republicans have blocked, including dozens of subpoenas.

That said, Trump still carries much weight among Republicans, with over 80 percent support, and the Democrats have a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory -- think 2016 -- and compromising too much.

In central Kansas, a coffee event held last month by conservative Congressman Roger Marshall for constituents underscored the extent that Trump voters are behind him, even if his policies hurt them, such as trade sanctions against major trading partners like China. One farmer said he was willing to endure "short-term pain" for long-term gain by supporting the president. That month, Trump also tipped a tight Republican primary race for Kansas governor to a right-wing candidate, ally and nativist Kris Kobach, at the last minute.

McCain's funeral is over, but November could be the start of Trump's.

(James Simms is a Forbes contributor, freelance reporter and television and radio commentator in Tokyo and is a former Wall Street Journal columnist and former Scripps Journalism Fellow at the University of Colorado.)