The victory by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition in Sunday's general election was a positive development for the United States, especially ahead of President Donald Trump's first trip to Japan and four other Asian countries next month, according to some American scholars.

The scholars believe Abe's foreign policy -- including his tough approach toward North Korea -- will remain intact, but caution that he may capitalize on the big win by leading debate on a first-ever amendment to the Constitution, a move they fear could provoke South Korea and China, both of which suffered from Japan's wartime militarism.


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"Mr. Abe's victory is good for America," said Andrew Oros, director of international studies at Washington College in Maryland, citing continued stability in the management of the Japan-U.S. alliance and a good rapport between the two leaders.

Trump "visiting his probably best friend in the world stage right after a major victory of Mr. Abe gives President Trump a strong partner in Asia," Oros said.

But with Abe's dominant Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito retaining a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives, Abe appears set to push forward his proposal to add a reference to the Self-Defense Forces in the Constitution's war-renouncing Article 9 despite Komeito's reluctance and more than half the Japanese people opposing constitutional change under Abe's leadership.

Abe claims the proposed amendment would no longer allow some scholars and others to call the SDF as "unconstitutional" in the absence of a reference in the Constitution.

"There is a danger that a focus on constitutional change would create worsening relations between Japan and South Korea, which is another U.S. ally, and between Japan and China, at a time when all of these countries are trying to work together to address the North Korea nuclear threat," Oros said.

With Sunday's victory, the LDP-Komeito coalition and other pro-constitutional reform forces continue to have more than two-thirds of the members in both houses of the Diet, a condition required for initiating an amendment. The proposal must then be approved by a majority in a national referendum.

With regard to amendment of the Constitution, Komeito is likely to remain an "opposition within the coalition" on the matter, said Levi McLaughlin, an assistant professor of religious studies at North Carolina State University and an expert on Soka Gakkai, the lay-Buddhist organization that backs Komeito.

"It appears highly unlikely that Komeito will mobilize in support of an amendment to Article 9," said McLaughlin.

He said the fact that the 2015 security laws sponsored by the LDP and Komeito allowed for a reinterpretation of the article to enable Japan to play a larger security role -- such as exercising the right to collective self-defense -- makes it unnecessary for the government to alter it, a view broadly shared among Japan experts in the United States.

Given that the vast majority of the Japanese people support the SDF, "there does not appear to be a reason to amend Article 9," McLaughlin said.

Despite a rift over constitutional amendment, the governing coalition is expected to further strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance in the face of the nuclear and missile threat posed by North Korea, as well as the rise of China, according to experts.

"The Abe government's steadfast approach to North Korea really hasn't changed," said Patrick McEachern, a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, referring to the prime minister's policy of applying "maximum pressure" on North Korea in concert with the United States, South Korea and other countries to compel Pyongyang to change its provocative behavior.

"In this respect, I don't expect the election (victory) will adjust the Abe government's policy toward North Korea," he said.

Citing Abe's robust alliance management with Washington, as well as his active diplomacy with Australia, India, South Korea and Europe, McEachern said Abe is likely to step up such regional and global engagement as part of an effort to address the North Korean nuclear issue and a row with Beijing over the Senkaku Islands, a group of East China Sea islets administered by Japan but claimed by China and Taiwan.